XRP Clings to 100-DMA as $1.37 Becomes the Line
XRP has shed 12.5% in seven days and is resting on its 100-day moving average at $1.37. A decade-old minting bug was patched — the price doesn't care yet.
Key Points
- XRP has fallen 12.5% in seven days to $1.37, sitting directly on its 100-day moving average — the last technical line before a breakdown toward the $1.20–$1.25 zone.
- A patched XRP Ledger bug that could have allowed fraudulent minting of up to 18.45 trillion XRP tokens failed to trigger any buying response, signaling that market participants are focused entirely on price structure and macro, not protocol news.
- Watch the $1.37 level as binary: a daily close below it opens the door to $1.25; a hold with volume reclaims $1.42 as the first meaningful resistance.
XRP is trading at **$1.37** this morning, down **12.5% over the past seven days**, and sitting directly on its 100-day moving average — the precise level where the next directional decision gets made. The token slipped **4.5% on October 13 alone**, breaking below the **$1.40–$1.42** support band it had defended for much of early October and erasing any residual momentum from the period when XRP was trading above **$1.50**. The chart structure since that peak is unambiguous: lower highs, lower lows, shrinking bounces.
The Chart Is in Control Now
Technical structure has completely displaced fundamentals as the price driver for XRP. Since failing to sustain the **$1.50** handle earlier this month, XRP has made a textbook series of lower highs and lower lows — the definition of a downtrend in any technical framework. The October 13 drop of **4.5%** to **$1.37** was the confirmation move, taking out the **$1.40–$1.42** zone that had served as near-term support and forcing the price directly onto the 100-day moving average.
The RSI on the daily XRPUSD chart currently reads **40.4** — below the 50 midline, confirming that bearish momentum still dominates. It is not yet in oversold territory by the conventional 30-level threshold, which matters because oversold readings are often the technical precondition for the kind of short-covering rally that provides temporary relief in beaten-down assets. At 40.4, XRP is in the uncomfortable middle zone: not oversold enough to attract mechanical buyers, but damaged enough that trend-followers have no reason to add. The last time XRP's RSI approached the 30 level, the subsequent bounce lasted less than a week before sellers reasserted control — context worth keeping in mind for anyone anticipating a snap-back.
Immediate support is at **$1.37** — the 100-DMA itself. Below that, the next meaningful technical floor analysts have flagged sits in the **$1.20–$1.25** range, a level that would represent a further **9–12%** decline from current prices and take XRP back to levels last seen in the summer. On the upside, resistance is stacked: **$1.42** is the first line to reclaim, followed by **$1.50**, where sellers were clearly concentrated earlier this month. A move back above **$1.50** would require a fundamental shift in either macro sentiment or token-specific news — neither of which is visible on today's calendar.
The Bug Patch That Nobody Bought
XRP Ledger developers this week disclosed and simultaneously neutralized a decade-old vulnerability in the payment engine that could have allowed an attacker to fraudulently mint as many as **18.45 trillion XRP tokens**. To put that number in perspective, the total circulating supply of XRP is approximately **57.1 billion tokens** — meaning a successful exploit could have inflated supply by a factor that would have rendered every existing token essentially worthless. The bug was squashed before any exploitation occurred.
Under different market conditions — a bull tape, strong institutional inflows, a risk-on macro backdrop — a disclosure like this paired with a successful patch would likely have been received as a net positive: proof that the development team is actively hardening the protocol, that the network's integrity held, and that holders dodged a catastrophic outcome. Markets can and do reward near-misses when sentiment is constructive. That is not the environment of October 14, 2026.
Instead, XRP ETFs recorded **$0.00 in net flows** on October 12, the fourth zero-flow session this month. Total net assets in U.S. spot XRP ETFs hold at approximately **$1.55 billion**, representing roughly **1.79% of XRP's market cap** — a proportion that reflects the product's limited institutional adoption relative to Bitcoin and even Ethereum ETF structures. The minting bug story generated headlines but zero capital movement. When a potentially catastrophic vulnerability patch produces no buying response whatsoever, the message from the market is clear: institutional and sophisticated retail participants are not making XRP allocation decisions based on protocol news right now. They are watching Bitcoin, watching the Fed, and watching their P&L.
Where the Trade Sets Up
The setup from here is binary and level-dependent. CoinDesk and on-chain analysts have both noted that the broader altcoin complex is struggling in lockstep with Bitcoin's inability to break above **$85,600** resistance — XRP's weakness is partially a beta trade on BTC's indecision rather than a purely XRP-specific story. If Bitcoin holds **$82,500** and begins building a base, XRP gets a macro tailwind that could provide the bounce the RSI structure is approaching but hasn't yet triggered.
The specific levels that matter: a daily close below **$1.37** — meaning XRP loses the 100-DMA on a closing basis, not just an intraday wick — would be a technically significant deterioration. That print would likely accelerate selling from momentum-following algorithms and trigger stop-losses clustered just below the moving average, with **$1.25** as the next area of genuine structural support. Conversely, a recovery above **$1.42** on volume above the recent daily average of roughly **$2–3 billion** in XRP spot turnover would be the first signal worth taking seriously on the long side — not a conviction trade, but a level where a risk-defined counter-trend position becomes defensible.
The October 27–28 Fed decision is the macro event that resets the entire altcoin calculus. Per The Block, a dovish surprise — or even a hold with softened language — would likely provide the broadest lift to the altcoin complex, XRP included. A hike, or hawkish hold, keeps the pressure on. Until that binary resolves, XRP at **$1.37** is a coin on a wire: one macro print away from a breakdown, one risk-on session away from a relief bounce, and technically unable to sustain either direction without broader market confirmation.
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