Bitcoin hit a session high of $74,959 on Tuesday, and the crypto market surged past a $2.6 trillion total valuation, driven by a combination of forces that have not aligned simultaneously since before the Iran conflict began. Ethereum is up 12.4% on the week. XRP is gaining on renewed regulatory clarity. And for the first time in months, the macro backdrop is actually cooperating rather than fighting the crypto thesis.
The ceasefire between the US and Iran, announced last Tuesday and now holding into its seventh day, removed the single largest headwind that had been weighing on Bitcoin since late February. During the worst of the conflict, BTC fell from a 2026 peak near $97,000 to lows around $65,720, a decline of roughly 32% driven almost entirely by risk-off positioning and the forced selling of leveraged positions. The Fear and Greed Index bottomed at 8 out of 100. We covered that moment in full in our piece on what was really driving the Bitcoin selloff.
As the fear premium reverses, the underlying institutional bid that was accumulating through the entire selloff is becoming visible. US spot Bitcoin ETFs pulled in $18.7 billion in net inflows through Q1 2026 despite the price decline. Exchange reserves are at their lowest levels since 2023, meaning the supply of easily-sellable Bitcoin has been steadily removed from the market even as prices fell. Whale wallets holding more than 10,000 BTC added approximately 61,000 coins during the correction.
The next technical level that matters is $75,000. There is approximately $200 million in short positions clustered just above that threshold. A sustained close above $75,000 would trigger liquidations that could accelerate the move higher in the near term. Bernstein maintained its $150,000 year-end target for Bitcoin through the entire correction. The thesis has not changed. The fear that interrupted it temporarily has.
