KEY POINTS
- Bitcoin traded at $76,757 on Monday morning, down 5% over the past seven days and sitting 5.2% below the $81,000 level it touched on May 5, as the early-May rally driven by the CLARITY Act faded.
- The U.S.-Iran conflict continues to weigh on risk assets broadly, with chip-sector selling dragging the Nasdaq down 0.5% on Monday and spilling into crypto sentiment.
- Traders should watch the $75,000 support level closely — a break below would open the door to a retest of April's $72,500 low, while spot Bitcoin ETF inflows of $2.7 billion over nine trading days provide a demand floor.
Bitcoin dropped to $76,757 on Monday morning, marking its lowest opening price since the start of May and extending a 5% decline over the past seven days. The move erased the gains from early in the month, when BTC briefly reclaimed $81,000 on optimism around the CLARITY Act's progress through Congress. That burst of legislative hope has faded, and the macro backdrop has reasserted itself.
The proximate cause is familiar: geopolitical risk. The U.S.-Iran standoff continues to pressure risk assets across the board. Monday's equity session saw the Nasdaq fall 0.5% as memory-chip stocks cratered on supply-chain fears linked to the Middle East conflict. Crypto, which has traded with an increasingly tight correlation to tech equities since the spot ETF approvals, followed the risk-off move in lockstep.
The Regulatory Tailwind That Stalled
Two weeks ago, Bitcoin's push above $80,000 looked like the start of something bigger. The catalyst was real: the CLARITY Act, a comprehensive regulatory framework for digital assets, appeared to be nearing Senate passage after a compromise on stablecoin yield provisions broke a months-long impasse. The House passed the bill in July 2025, and the Senate compromise would allow crypto firms to offer stablecoin yield provided the rewards are not economically equivalent to bank deposit interest.
But legislative timelines are unreliable catalysts. The bill has not yet reached a full floor vote, and Senate leadership has not committed to a specific date. Meanwhile, the GENIUS Act — a narrower stablecoin-only bill — cleared a 66-32 procedural vote to advance to full debate. The dual-track regulatory push is constructive for the medium term but is not generating the urgency that moves spot prices in the short term.
ETF Flows Provide a Floor
The strongest argument against a deeper selloff is institutional demand through spot Bitcoin ETFs. The funds logged nine consecutive trading days of net inflows through early May, pulling in roughly $2.7 billion across the streak. May 1 alone saw $629 million in single-day inflows, one of the strongest prints of 2026. BlackRock's IBIT and Fidelity's FBTC continue to dominate the flow picture, accounting for the bulk of new assets.
Cumulative net inflows since the spot ETFs launched in January 2024 now stand at $58.72 billion, still below the $61.19 billion peak reached in October but recovering steadily. April closed at $1.97 billion net positive, the strongest monthly total of 2026, and May is running positive out of the gate.
The ETF flow data suggests that institutional allocators are buying dips rather than chasing momentum, which provides a structural demand floor that did not exist in previous Bitcoin drawdowns. But ETF flows alone cannot overcome macro headwinds if the Iran situation escalates further or if the Fed signals a more hawkish stance.
Where the Trade Goes From Here
The $75,000 level is the line in the sand. Bitcoin held that support in mid-April and a clean break below would likely trigger a cascade of liquidations that could push prices toward the $72,500 low set in late March. On the upside, reclaiming $80,000 with conviction would require either a CLARITY Act vote date, a meaningful de-escalation in the Middle East, or a blowout NVIDIA earnings print tomorrow that reignites the risk-on trade. The next 48 hours matter.
