KEY POINTS
- Hut 8 Corp. surged 16.65% and Riot Platforms added 13.53% Thursday as Bitcoin held near $94,300 — the cryptocurrency's April strength, up approximately 15% on the month, is finally translating into outsized miner equity moves as ceasefire-driven risk appetite returns to the market.
- Mining economics remain challenging: hashrate has soared post-halving, daily gross profit per EH/s has dropped 11% month-over-month, and margins sit roughly 70% below pre-halving levels — but Riot's data center expansion pivot, funded by $289.5 million in Q1 2026 Bitcoin sales, is helping diversify away from pure mining dependency.
- The next catalyst for mining stocks is whether Bitcoin sustains above $90,000 through mid-April expiry, which would force short covering in names like RIOT and HUT that have lagged the underlying asset's 2026 performance; a WTI crude bounce back above $100 would squeeze mining energy costs and represent the primary headwind.
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Hut 8 Corp. and Riot Platforms each exploded higher Thursday — HUT gaining 16.65%, or $8.77 per share, and RIOT adding 13.53%, or $1.92 — as Bitcoin held near $94,300 and the combined tailwinds of ceasefire risk appetite and cryptocurrency momentum pushed mining equities to their best single-session performance in months.
The moves rank Hut 8 and Riot as the second and fourth largest gainers on major U.S. exchanges Thursday, trailing only AXT Inc. and USA Rare Earth in percentage terms. The magnified beta relative to Bitcoin itself — which has been building a 15% April gain more steadily rather than in single-session spikes — reflects a catch-up dynamic that has been building for weeks. Bitcoin refused to fall meaningfully even as macroeconomic uncertainty peaked during the Hormuz disruption, treating the geopolitical turbulence as a kind of proof-of-concept for digital scarcity assets. Mining stocks, weighed down by energy cost uncertainty and margin compression, did not fully participate in Bitcoin's resilience. Thursday is the market rerating those equities upward now that crude oil has pulled back from its crisis peak.
The Mining Margin Problem
The enthusiasm in Hut 8 and Riot shares Thursday should not obscure the structural challenges both companies face. The 2024 Bitcoin halving — which reduced the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC — compressed per-unit mining revenue at the same time that global hashrate has continued climbing as miners deployed pre-halving hardware purchases. Daily gross profit per exahash has dropped 11% month-over-month, and miner margins sit approximately 70% below pre-halving levels. That is the math every Bitcoin miner is operating against regardless of what the spot price does in any given week.
The Hormuz disruption compounded the problem. Energy costs represent 60% to 80% of all-in mining costs for most large-scale operators. When WTI crude spiked above $115 and natural gas prices followed with their own disruption premium — gas-fired power generation became more expensive, and contracts with gas-heavy utility suppliers repriced — mining operators faced a cost squeeze from both directions simultaneously. Revenue per BTC was holding reasonably well as Bitcoin maintained its $85,000 to $94,000 range during the conflict. But the cost side was deteriorating.
Wednesday's 16% oil collapse changed that math in a single session. Power cost expectations for the forward 12 months repriced downward as energy markets discounted a sustained post-ceasefire crude environment. Mining operators that had been hedging energy exposure defensively saw those hedges become less necessary overnight. The equity market on Thursday is catching up to that cost-side improvement.
Riot's Data Center Pivot
Riot Platforms sold 3,778 Bitcoin in Q1 2026, raising $289.5 million — and rather than holding the proceeds in Bitcoin treasury as it had done in previous cycles, directed the capital toward data center expansion. The move reflects a strategic evolution that is increasingly common among leading miners: the same industrial-scale power infrastructure and high-density cooling systems built for Bitcoin mining are directly applicable to AI inference and high-performance computing workloads that carry more predictable, contract-based revenue.
For Riot, the data center buildout represents a hedge against exactly the margin compression described above. When Bitcoin mining economics deteriorate in low-price or high-hashrate environments, HPC rental revenue provides a floor. When Bitcoin runs — as it has in April — the mining operation captures the upside while the HPC business contributes baseline revenue stability. The strategy is not unique to Riot; Hut 8 has pursued a similar hybrid model, and Core Scientific's dramatic court-supervised restructuring earlier in the cycle was partly driven by a too-late pivot toward HPC co-location.
The market is Thursday assigning a premium to miners that have made this pivot credibly versus those still purely dependent on block rewards. That premium is one reason the single-session moves in HUT and RIOT are as large as they are — both companies represent the evolved version of the mining equity thesis rather than the pure-play BTC leverage that characterized the sector's early years.
Where Mining Stocks Go From Here
Bitcoin's 15% April gain has been built on remarkably consistent demand even as traditional risk assets swung wildly on Iran-related headlines. The cryptocurrency has effectively demonstrated a low correlation to geopolitical event risk over the past six weeks — a behavioral shift that institutional allocators have noted and that could bring fresh capital into digital asset strategies if it persists.
For mining stocks, the next key test is the April 25 options expiry, where a significant volume of RIOT and HUT open interest is concentrated above current prices. If Bitcoin holds above $90,000 through that date, short sellers who were positioned against the miners during the energy cost crisis face meaningful pressure to cover. That short squeeze dynamic could extend Thursday's gains into next week.
The primary risk is crude oil. A ceasefire collapse that sends WTI back above $100 reverses the energy cost improvement that is partially driving Thursday's enthusiasm. Miners with locked-in power contracts or renewable energy exposure are insulated from this risk; those relying on spot electricity markets are not. Investors in RIOT and HUT should know which category each company's power portfolio falls into before sizing positions around Bitcoin's current strength. The April FOMC meeting and the ceasefire's two-week clock are the macro events to watch; the miners will follow Bitcoin, and Bitcoin will follow risk appetite, and risk appetite — for now — is watching Tehran.
Articles researched and written for The Weekly Investor | April 9, 2026
Sources consulted: CNBC, Bloomberg, CNN Business, BEA.gov, Al Jazeera, Fortune, FX Leaders, Bitcoin.com News, Sherwood News, Chatham House, IG International
