Bitcoin Breaks Below $74K: Five Weeks Down, $73.5K on the Line
Bitcoin closed its fifth straight losing week at $74,289, with $1.28B in ETF outflows and $1.04B in liquidations threatening the 200-day MA at $73,170.
Key Points
- Bitcoin traded at $74,289 on Monday, its fifth consecutive weekly close in the red and roughly 8% below its November 4 high above $81,000.
- BlackRock's IBIT alone drove $1.21 billion — 94% — of the $1.28 billion in weekly Bitcoin ETF outflows, the largest single-fund exodus in roughly four months.
- Traders must watch Tuesday's U.S. inflation print and the $73,170 200-day moving average; a confirmed break below that level risks triggering a structural multi-month downtrend.
Bitcoin crossed a painful threshold overnight: it is now trading below the average acquisition cost of Strategy, the largest publicly listed corporate BTC holder on earth. At $74,289 as of 06:00 UTC Monday, the coin has shed roughly 8% from its November 4 intraday high above $81,000, closed five consecutive weeks in the red, and printed a 2-month intraday low of $73,510 — a number now seared into every serious trader's risk model. The 200-day moving average at $73,170 is the last structural floor. Below it, there is no obvious technical argument for a bull case.
The Institutional Exodus
The $1.28 billion in net outflows from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs during the November 2–6 trading week is the single most consequential data point in this selloff. It is the worst weekly ETF bleed in roughly four months, and it has officially tipped the 2026 cumulative flow balance into negative territory: according to SoSoValue, U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have now recorded net outflows of $502 million year-to-date, with $26.1 billion in total withdrawals outpacing $25.6 billion in inflows. The product category that Wall Street spent 18 months lobbying into existence is, at this moment, a net seller of Bitcoin.
The source of the bleeding is not ambiguous. BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust, IBIT — the flagship product and the fund most retail investors associate with institutional validation of Bitcoin — accounted for $1.21 billion of that weekly outflow, or 94 cents of every dollar that left the category. The timing follows a recognizable pattern: IBIT shed $806.5 million from Monday through Thursday before an additional $403 million walked out the door on Friday. That is not profit-taking at a peak. That is systematic, week-long institutional de-risking. When the largest asset manager on the planet is the primary seller, it matters structurally, not just technically.
Ethereum ETFs compounded the picture. Spot Ethereum funds surrendered $365.2 million in the same week, led by outflows from BlackRock's ETHA and ETHB. Total assets in U.S. spot Ethereum ETFs have contracted from $17.95 billion to $13.04 billion — a 27% decline in the asset base. XRP's spot ETFs, with $1.34 billion in net assets, saw negligible action: approximately $530,000 in outflows on November 2 and nothing afterward. The XRP product is essentially frozen, neither attracting new capital nor hemorrhaging existing holders.
What the Tape Is Telling You
Monday's intraday range told a specific story. Bitcoin touched $73,510 — close enough to the 200-day moving average at $73,170 to make risk managers nervous — before recovering above $75,000, then fading again to the $74,200–$74,800 range that has defined most of the session. BTC is trading below its daily pivot of $74,853.81 and below all three daily moving averages. The Bollinger lower boundary at $74,015.94 is acting as near-term support; below that sits daily S1 at $73,507.63. To the upside, $76,000 is the first meaningful level bulls need to reclaim before any credible recovery narrative toward $78,000 becomes discussable.
The liquidation data reinforces the bearish read. Total 24-hour crypto liquidations topped $1.04 billion as of early Monday, following $1.25 billion in forced closures on November 6. By 06:00 UTC, approximately $803 million in positions had been wiped in just the preceding four hours — overwhelmingly long positions. When the market is liquidating longs at that velocity, it signals that leveraged bulls are not stepping in to defend levels; they are being dragged out of their positions by price action that is moving faster than their margin can absorb.
The Fear & Greed Index is sitting at 29, one point above last reading's 28. The index is not signaling capitulation-level fear — the kind of extreme reading that has historically produced sharp bounces — but it is not close to neutral either. Meanwhile, U.S. equities provided no relief. The NASDAQ added 1.09% Friday and the S&P 500 gained 0.31%, yet Bitcoin failed to follow. Historically, a decoupling where crypto falls while risk assets recover is a warning sign, not a buying opportunity. The correlation that institutional investors cited when purchasing IBIT is functioning in reverse.
What Traders Watch Next
The macro calendar now becomes the swing factor. October nonfarm payrolls came in at 165,000 — firm enough to keep the Federal Reserve's higher-for-longer thesis intact and to suppress the rate-cut optimism that fueled crypto's earlier 2026 rally. Tuesday's U.S. inflation print is the next scheduled catalyst. A CPI number above consensus would reinforce the rate pressure narrative and almost certainly test the $73,510 intraday low. A softer print could provide the macro alibi for a relief bounce, but bulls would still need to clear $76,000 on a closing basis before claiming anything has changed structurally.
The Block has been tracking the ETF flow deterioration throughout the week, and the data there shows no sign of institutional buyers returning at scale. The Binance hack aftermath — which has drained roughly 56,000 BTC from exchange reserves and injected $1.04 billion in daily liquidations into an already fragile market — adds an idiosyncratic risk layer that standard macro models do not capture. Strategy's paper loss on its Bitcoin holdings, now that BTC has fallen below its average acquisition cost, may also generate headline risk that amplifies selling pressure if Tuesday's inflation data disappoints.
The number to engrave: $73,170. That is the 200-day moving average, and it is the floor the bulls cannot surrender. A daily close below that level — particularly on high volume following a hot CPI print — would shift the technical consensus from "correcting within a bull market" to "early-stage structural breakdown." The next meaningful support below it is not well-defined, which is precisely what makes the level so critical. Traders with active BTC exposure should have that number in their risk framework before Tuesday's open.
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